Eagles Playoff Scenarios: The Wild Path to the No. 1 Seed and Why the Colts Matter Tonight

You can hear the great Andy Williams singing it, "It's the most wonderful time of the year." Well, in my case, I am obsessed with playoff scenarios and seeding. On Saturday night, the Philadelphia Eagles became the first NFC East team to repeat as division champions in more than two decades. Fittingly, the first since the Eagles themselves pulled it off over 20 years ago. Even more incredible? The No. 1 seed is still technically on the table. Is it a long shot? Absolutely. But as long as the door isn’t fully shut, it deserves a look.

Photo Credit: Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire

Last week’s wild NFC West showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks, capped by Seattle’s heroic comeback, actually nudged those odds in the Eagles’ favor. Not by much, mind you. Think less wide open doorway and more cracked open by another quarter inch. Still, in January football, that’s sometimes all you need. I have seen some wild scenarios play out for teams to get in, most notably in 2008 when the Eagles needed to knock off Dallas in the final week, and the Bucs, Bears, and Vikings all needed to lose. Amazingly, everything broke the Birds' way, and if you remember the Bucs loss to the hapless Raiders was one of the biggest shocks of the season.

The odds are long, the calculator is out, and the door is barely cracked...let's get to it:

Scenario For the #1 Seed:

First things first: the Eagles must win out- at BUF, vs WAS and finish 12-5.

The Seattle Seahawks win over the Rams actually helped a bit. Seattle now needs to lose both remaining games (at CAR, at SF). That’s not crazy, and it’s far better than the alternative. Had the Rams won, they’d have needed to lose both (at ATL, vs AZ). Instead, the Los Angeles Rams only need to drop one of two to land at 12–5.

So that doesn't seem too insane so far, right? Eagles finish 12-5, Seahawks 12-5 and Rams 12-5....#1 seed still alive. Now for the fun. What about the 49ers and Bears?

The 49ers must close the year out 1-2 to finish at 11-6. The caveat? It must be in a specific order. San Francisco must lose at IND, must lose vs CHI, and must win vs SEA in the last week (required since Seattle must lose out).

No other combination works.

As for the Bears, yes, the loss at the Linc a few weeks back stinks, but it does not really affect a 3 way tie at 12-5 for this to work. Bears must win at SF next week, and then lose vs DET in the final week.

Eagles #1 Seed Scenario Checklist:

PHL finish 2-0 (at BUF, vs WAS), 12-5

SEA: finish 0-2 (at CAR, at SF), 12-5

LA: finish 1-1 (at ATL vs AZ), 12-5

SF: finish 1-2, (must lose at IND, must lose vs CHI, must win vs SEA), 11-6

CHI: finish 1-1, (must win at SF, must lose at DET)

If, and it's a BIG IF, all of that happens: Rams win NFC West, Bears win NFC North, and the Eagles find themselves in a 3 way tie at 12-5. If that happens, because all 3 teams did not play one another it goes to conference record and the Eagles would finish 9-3, Bears 8-4, and Rams 7-5. Tie breaker = Eagles.

So that's all that needs to happen and the road to the Super Bowl heads through South Philly! LOL.

What about the #2 seed?

This is simple. Eagles win out and Bears lose out.

PHL: finish 2-0 (at BUF, vs WAS), 12-5

CHI: finish 0-2 (at SF, vs DET), 11-6

What about the #3 seed?

This is the most likely outcome because the Bears hold the tiebreaker over the Eagles due to the head-to-head matchup, and the odds are that something in the more complicated scenarios mentioned earlier breaks against Philadelphia. Even if the Eagles go 2–0 and the Bears finish 1–1, Chicago would still clinch the No. 2 seed, leaving the Eagles at No. 3. Likewise, if the Bears go 0–2 and the Eagles finish 1–1, the Bears would still hold onto the No. 2 seed.

What about the #4 seed?

This is where the Eagles absolutely do not want to land. Why? Because at the time of this writing, the Rams are most likely team to finish as the #5 seed, meaning a dangerous first round matchup for the #4 seed.

For the Eagles to drop to the #4 seed, they would need to lose out and the Panthers would have to win out.

PHL: finish 0-2 (at BUF, vs WASH) 10-7

CAR: finish 2-0 (vs SEA, at TAM) 10-7

In this scenario, Carolina actually wins the tie breaker. As strange as it sounds, given the Eagles are the defending Super Bowl champions and battled through a brutal schedule, the rules are the rules. Both teams would be 10–7 overall and 8–4 in conference, pushing the decision to the common-games tiebreaker (minimum four games). The common opponents would be:

Cowboys (twice for PHI)

Rams

Buccaneers (twice for CAR)

Packers

Bills

Under this setup, Carolina would finish 5–1 (.833) in common games, while the Eagles would be 4–2 (.667), giving the Panthers the edge and dropping Philly into the worst possible matchup lane.

So there you have it! The complete playoff picture for the Birds! PREPARE THE FLOATS™